Building resilience to address Afghanistan's food security crisis
Climate shocks are exacerbating this crisis. The ongoing drought-among the worst in decades-has drastically reduced rainfall, severely impacting rain-dependent agriculture. Earlier this year, catastrophic flooding in provinces like Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan, caused widespread destruction of homes, agricultural lands, and livestock.
Afghanistan ranks fourth on the list of countries most at risk of and is considered the seventh with the least coping capacity. The frequency of droughts in the country has increased from an average of once every 3 years over 1986-2012, to once every other year over 2013-2023.
Impact on agricultural economy
A new examined the effects of climate and weather shocks on Afghanistan's agricultural economy, with an emphasis on food security, prices, and wages. The findings reveal that both flooding and drought significantly increase food insecurity, directly and indirectly.
Economic factors, such as inflation, rising fuel costs, and currency depreciation, further reduce the purchasing power of consumers and strain affordability. These combined challenges leave vulnerable households particularly at risk.
Investing in long-term resilience
Addressing food insecurity requires a comprehensive approach. Investments in climate resilience, like drought-resistant crops and livestock, crop diversification, improved irrigation and integrated watershed management, are essential. Simultaneously, economic measures such as income support for vulnerable populations and improved market access can help mitigate the effects of rising costs.
This includes enhancing local agricultural production, promoting sustainable farming practices, enhancing agricultural value chains, and developing early warning systems for climatic events.
The World Bank is helping address the food security crisis through the which supports the Afghan population by boosting food crop production among smallholder farmers and addressing the nutritional needs of women-headed households, in partnership with the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It is also promoting resilience and commercialization of agriculture production systems through the private sector by scaling up climate-resilient seed value chains, investing in improved water management technologies, and promoting value addition facilities to connect food supply chains to markets.
The is supporting a pilot to improve surface water irrigation systems to reduce the impact of droughts and thus foster greater agricultural climate resilience in partnership with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and the Agha Khan Foundation (AKF). By replacing diesel pumps with sustainable energy solutions, the project enhances farmers' access to water and energy resources. It is also fostering community-private partnerships to deliver longer term solutions for drought-affected rural communities. The project will benefit 2,000 farmers and 100,000 community members.
The World Bank is also partnering with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to . A drought forecasting and early warning tool is being developed, leveraging satellite remote sensing datasets and machine learning prediction models, to strengthen drought risk management and anticipatory actions. This open-source tool can help farmers to prepare in advance by adjusting their crop management practices, such as altering irrigation schedules, selecting drought-resistant crop varieties, or delaying planting to avoid the most vulnerable periods.
The challenges posed by climate change and its cascading impacts on food security in Afghanistan will continue to increase over time. .