Glaciers and disaster risk: a regional perspective on a global challenge

High mountain ecosystems play a crucial role in global environmental stability, but they are undergoing rapid transformations due to global warming, deforestation, and the impact of other human activities. In Latin America, Andean glaciers have lost more than 35% of their surface area between 1990 and 2020 (Dussaillant et al., 2019; Masiokas et al., 2020). This retreat increases vulnerability to high-impact events such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), avalanches, and landslides. In Peru, for instance, the 2023 National Glacier Inventory reports a 53% reduction in glacier coverage since 1962 (INAIGEM, 2023), heightening disaster risk, affecting water regulation, and, in the short term, compromising the safety of over ten million people in dependent river basins. This phenomenon not only impacts biodiversity and soil stability but also reconfigures the development challenges for communities that rely on these ecosystem services, ranging from access to drinking water to subsistence agriculture.
The potential occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) poses an ever-growing danger due to a combination of drastic changes in lake volume and surrounding stability, along with the occupation of areas that could be severely affected by a potential outburst. A GLOF is a sudden and large-scale flood caused by the sudden release of water stored in a glacial lake; these lakes are formed by melting glaciers and are usually contained by natural barriers made of soil (glacial moraines or old landslides) or ice (Ives, Shrestha, & Mool, 2010). The most common causes of these releases include lake overflow, internal erosion of the dam, avalanche impacts, seismic activity, or even volcanic phenomena (Arrilucea, 2023). These events can release millions of cubic meters of water and debris in minutes, traveling at speeds that can exceed ten meters per second and reaching areas located hundreds of kilometers downstream (Fundación Glaciares Chilenos, 2020). The combination of water, sediments, and rocky material makes these avalanches particularly destructive, eroding valleys, altering river courses, and destroying critical infrastructure such as bridges and roads (Arrilucea, 2023).
Glacial retreat transcends borders and is a global issue that requires innovative and coordinated solutions. These mountainous ecosystems contribute up to 60% of the world’s freshwater (UNEP, 2021) and are key to carbon capture, but their degradation undermines these essential benefits. In this context, 2025 has been declared by the UN as the International Year for Glacier Conservation. This recognition provides a platform to promote strategies that combine risk management of various kinds with sustainable development. Solutions such as the restoration of native vegetation and integrated watershed management can reduce erosion by 20 to 30% (FAO, 2020), stabilizing soils and mitigating threats.
A region at risk: the Andes as the epicenter
In the Andes, exposure to these changes is particularly critical: 70% of rural communities rely on these ecosystems for water and agriculture (World Bank, 2022). The combination of glacier retreat and extreme events has tripled the frequency of GLOFs in recent decades (Carey et al., 2012), affecting infrastructure and livelihoods. The Andes hold 60% of the world’s tropical glaciers, which are retreating rapidly, increasing the number of unstable glacial lakes. This issue is exacerbated by the high population density in risk zones. It is estimated that 1.2 million people in the Peruvian Andes live in areas directly exposed to GLOFs, with more than 120,000 concentrated in the Cordillera Blanca. Uncontrolled urbanization increases the potential damage of a new GLOF. In Huaraz, the population has multiplied since 1941, increasing vulnerability to these events. This is an example of processes that continue to evolve, slowly but steadily, in the countries that share the mountain range.
From crisis management to resilience building
Resilience can be built through integrated risk management. Investments in green infrastructure, such as natural dams, and satellite monitoring technologies can reduce economic losses by 15% annually (Ä¢¹½´«Ã½, 2023), while generating employment and strengthening food security. In Peru, for example, glacier monitoring pilot projects have allowed communities to anticipate extreme events, saving lives and crops. These initiatives show that proactive action not only mitigates risks but also drives inclusive growth and resilience.
Similarly, efforts to reorganize and plan territory, as well as investments needed to reduce imminent risk levels in certain regions, can be an opportunity to improve the efficiency of urban and productive systems, as well as enhance the integration of productive landscapes within a sustainability framework. Considering the investment deficits and challenges in attracting investment in these areas, addressing the risk of GLOFs can also strengthen the adaptation capacity and prosperity of hundreds of communities living above 3,500 meters above sea level along the Andes.
Implications for sustainable development
The degradation of these ecosystems directly impacts the livelihoods of vulnerable populations and requires an approach that prioritizes their needs. In Bolivia and Peru, the reduction of glaciers threatens irrigation for 40% of Andean agricultural production (Mark et al., 2017), while costs associated with disasters consume up to 2% of the regional GDP every year (ECLAC, 2021). Ignoring the problem, or addressing it without a deep understanding, could exacerbate inequalities, displacing vulnerable populations and perpetuating cycles of poverty. However, regional cooperation and climate financing offer alternatives: since 2018, the Green Climate Fund has allocated US$100 million to adaptation projects in high mountain areas in Latin America (GCF, 2023), supporting innovations that strengthen local resilience.
A global perspective
The problem is not limited to the Andes. In the Himalayas, glaciers have lost 8% of their mass between 1975 and 2016 (WMO, 2022), threatening millions of people in Asia. Early warning systems in the Alps, in turn, have reduced fatalities by 25% since 2000 (WMO, 2022), demonstrating the value of technological innovation. These examples reinforce the need for a global approach that transfers lessons between regions. Addressing this crisis requires a multisectoral approach that integrates nature-based solutions with technological advancements. The IDB is promoting financial and technical tools to conserve glaciers, reduce risk, and foster sustainable development, based on innovation and the co-generation of knowledge among broad forums of public and private actors. In the coming months, we will be sharing examples of how the integration of the science, policy, and disaster risk management communities, climate action, and other areas of the development agenda are making significant strides with considerable potential for global impact and replicability.