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Understanding drought dynamics in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) is crucial as it profoundly impacts water resources, agriculture and the socio-economic stability of the region. Shared by Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe, the LRB faces extreme variations in rainfall patterns, making it highly vulnerable to drought. Innovative solutions, such as the International Water Management Institute’s (IWMI) digital twin platform co-developed with the Limpopo Water Course Commission (LIMCOM), are emerging as critical tools to address these challenges. The region experienced extended dry conditions related to the El Niño phenomenon during the last cropping season (2023-2024).  Integrating near real-time hydrological data and earth observation imagery (EOI), the platform allows for better monitoring and management of water resources. It also offers a powerful tool for predicting drought conditions, improving irrigation efficiency and enabling informed decision-making in water management.

Current drought conditions in Limpopo

A recent study conducted by IWMI has shed light on the severity of the 2024 drought conditions, focusing on how they affect agricultural activities and water resource management. Covering 408,250 km², the LRB provides water for millions of people. However, rainfall distribution is uneven across the basin, ranging from as low as 200 mm per year in arid regions to as high as 1,500 mm in more humid areas. Most of the basins receive less than 500 mm of annual rainfall, amplifying the effects of drought on local agriculture, which relies heavily on seasonal rain. About 52% of the land used as cropland and grass land agricultural activities are susceptible to these climatic variations. This implies that agriculture is already constrained by limited arable land, and when drought strikes, the effects can be devastating. Analyzing rainfall indicators and vegetation health from satellite data, researchers were able to track the development of drought conditions throughout the 2023-2024 season and assess potential impacts on agriculture. These dry spells were mostly concentrated in the northern and southeastern parts of the basin, leading to critically reduced water availability. Vegetation health also suffered, as approximately 37% of the basin experienced significant drought during the 2023-2024 cropping season, with key agricultural regions in South Africa and Botswana experiencing declines in crop yields.

Forecast drought capabilities

Recent analyses using satellite-based precipitation data from 2023 to 2024 highlight the importance of short-term forecasts (1–2 months), which were found to be significantly more accurate than long-term predictions (3–6 months). This diminishing reliability with extended lead times underscores the critical role of short-term forecasts in enabling timely interventions, such as water resource management and crop planning, to mitigate drought impacts effectively. Accurate, near-term predictions empower local governments and communities to make informed decisions, protecting livelihoods and ensuring food security.

Drought forecasts for October 2024 to March 2025 project severe drought conditions in northwestern parts of the LRB, particularly in Botswana and Zimbabwe. While gradual improvements are expected toward the end of the period, these predictions highlight the urgent need for reliable short-term forecasting tools to build resilience against climate variability. Investments in satellite technology and forecasting capacity remain essential for managing future drought risks effectively.

Initiative to develop Limpopo digital twin

Agriculture in LRB is largely rainfed, and recurrent droughts have severe consequences for farmers and their livelihoods. Prolonged dry spells lead to crop failures, income loss, and heightened food insecurity. This has ripple effects, contributing to malnutrition and economic instability across the region. Looking ahead, building resilience to drought in the LRB will require the integration of EOI and crowd-sourcing data in innovative digital platforms with traditional water and agricultural management practices. The Limpopo Digital Twin platform is one such solution that is beginning to transform how we can use digital platforms to address climate challenges. Integrating hydrological data, including rainfall, river flow, and vegetation conditions from EOI, the Digital Twin framework provides unprecedented detail and insight into the state of the basin’s water resources.  These advancements not only support the region’s ability to cope with drought but also contribute to global efforts like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which aim to enhance resilient agricultural practices (SDG 2.4) to climate-related disaster resilience.

The future of the LRB depends on how effectively these strategies are implemented. With data-driven insights and adaptive approaches, there is potential to adapt to the impacts of drought and ensure long-term sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and communities, even in the face of climate change.