By Robin McKie
Hurricane Sandy, one of the most destructive storms in US history, struck New Jersey four years ago this weekend. It left hundreds dead, thousands homeless and millions without power. Around $75bn of damage was inflicted on homes, roads and offices.
The devastation and death toll were grim reminders of human vulnerability in the face of the elements. However, Hurricane Sandy’s impact could have been much worse, forecasters in the UK revealed last week. Scientists at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading were the first to warn there was a significant chance of Sandy making a sudden “left-hook” as it swept up the east coast of the US in late October 2012, striking Manhattan and New Jersey. Other centres were suggesting that the storm would peter out at sea.
The forecast – which was made five days before Hurricane Sandy hit the US mainland – was unexpected and confirmed only much later by other forecasters. Forewarned, New Jersey was able to protect itself from the worst effects of the 169km/h (105mph) hurricane.
It was a key success and now this forecasting prowess is to be further exploited by the Reading centre – rated one of the world’s top forecasting organisations – in order to make further improvements in its medium-range forecasting, which typically covers weather events over three to 10 days. “The crucial point about our approach to forecasting how Hurricane Sandy would behave once it had formed was a technique called ensemble forecasting,” said Florence Rabier, the centre’s director general.