These past two weeks have been extraordinarily difficult for California. Two historic fires-the -along with several smaller fires have burned more than 35,000 acres, devouring neighborhoods near Los Angeles and leaving thousands of Californians homeless.
So many Californians have been touched by this tragedy-even if you don't live in Southern California. Many of us have friends and family who have been evacuated or who have seen their homes burn to the ground.
Even after the winds and flames subside, we know that people will need help for months and years to come. A continuing focus on supporting communities as they recover-especially those who lacked insurance when the fires hit-will be vitally important.
Major wildfires in January were once unthinkable in California- While we don't yet know precisely how much of a role climate change played in these fires, we do know that . This was an event in which two climate phenomena happened to co-occur: the Los Angeles region had not received significant rainfall since spring 2024, and the summer of 2024 saw record high temperatures.
By this month, the landscape and all its flammable vegetation were exceptionally dry. When the Santa Ana winds arrived, as they often do in Southern California during the fall and winter, they blew across a bone-dry landscape ripe for burning.
The Palisades and Eaton fires give California a window into its present and its future. Rather than hoping for the best, California must urgently plan for what is likely to happen. A new planning approach should include:
- Translating climate research. Future projected temperatures, droughts, storms, and winds should be incorporated into realistic and likely scenarios for disaster planning. These climate scenarios need to take into account more than one extreme happening at once as well as the sequence of events. For example, to increase resilience among coastal communities, the state has translated climate research to produce standardized and regularly updated , which has been very useful for planning and coordination.
- Developing disaster scenarios. Experts in wildfire, flooding, and other disasters should use the climate scenarios to forecast potential disasters that could occur under future conditions. These disaster scenarios should be developed at the regional level, because each region is preparing for different conditions.
- Preparing locally and regionally. Disaster scenarios would inform planning by identifying and employing a wide range of tools to reduce risk, beginning with robust emergency planning. Improved land use planning and home hardening can help, from planning future homebuilding carefully to making buildings more fire resistant and increasing defensible space around them. Infrastructure upgrades such as improving clearance around, insulating, or burying powerlines and installing fire-resistant utility poles can reduce ignition risks.
- Pursuing new tools-and upgrading old ones. Continuing to implement developing technologies, such as remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and improved prevention and warning systems, can help improve our management of natural disasters. Improving insurance-individual and -will also be important.
California has hit an inflection point. The climate has already changed, and inexorable change will continue. To reduce the impacts and adapt to changing conditions, California will have to invest heavily in understanding future conditions and put in the time, energy, and resources to prepare for and respond to them. The message in the flames is clear: people's lives-their homes, memories, neighborhoods, health, and wellbeing-depend on us preparing for climate change like we mean it.