The science everyone needs to know about climate change, in 6 charts
With the United Nations’ climate conference in Scotland turning a spotlight on climate change policies and the impact of global warming, it’s useful to understand what the science shows.
I’m an who has worked on global climate science and assessments for most of my career. Here are six things you should know, in charts.
What’s driving climate change
The primary focus of the negotiations is on carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is released when fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – are burned, as well as by forest fires, land use changes and natural sources.
The Industrial Revolution of the late 1800s started an enormous increase in the burning of fossil fuels. It powered homes, industries and opened up the planet to travel. That same century, scientists to , which at the time was considered a possible benefit to the planet. Systematic measurements started in the mid-1900s and have shown a steady increase in carbon dioxide, with to the combustion of fossil fuels.
Once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide tends to stay there for a very long time. A portion of the carbon dioxide released through human activities is taken up by plants, and some is absorbed directly into the ocean, but of all carbon dioxide emitted by human activities today stays in the atmosphere — and it , influencing the climate globally.
During the , when fewer people were driving and some industries briefly stopped, carbon dioxide emissions from fuels fell by roughly 6%. But it because the amount released into the atmosphere by human activities far exceeded what nature could absorb.
If civilization stopped its carbon dioxide-emitting activities today, it would for the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to fall enough naturally to bring the planet’s carbon cycle back into balance because of carbon dioxide’s long life in the atmosphere.
How we know greenhouse gases can change the climate
Multiple lines of scientific evidence point to the increase in greenhouse emissions over the past century and a half as a driver of long-term climate change around the world. For example:
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Laboratory measurements have repeatedly verified and quantified the absorptive properties of carbon dioxide that allow it to trap heat in the atmosphere.
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based on the warming impact of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere .
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Complex climate models, recently acknowledged in , not only indicate a warming of the Earth due to increases in carbon dioxide but also .

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Long-term records from , and show that when carbon dioxide levels have been high, temperatures have also been high.
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Our neighboring planets also offer evidence. Venus’ atmosphere is thick with carbon dioxide, and it is the in our solar system as a result, even though Mercury is closer to the sun.
Temperatures are rising on every continent
The rising temperatures are evident in records from every continent and over the oceans.
The temperatures aren’t rising at the same rate everywhere, however. A variety of factors affect local temperatures, including land use that influences how much solar energy is absorbed or reflected, local heating sources like , and pollution.
The Arctic, for example, is warming about in part because as the planet warms, snow and ice melt makes the surface more likely to absorb, rather than reflect, the sun’s radiation. Snow cover and sea ice recede even more rapidly as a result.
What climate change is doing to the planet
Earth’s climate system is interconnected and complex, and even small temperature changes can have large impacts – for instance, with snow cover and sea levels.
Changes are already happening. Studies show that rising temperatures are precipitation, glaciers, weather patterns, tropical cyclone activity and severe storms. A number of studies show that the , severity and duration of heat waves, for example, , commerce and agriculture.
Historical records of ocean water level have shown mostly consistent increases over the past 150 years as glacier ice melts and rising temperatures expand ocean water, with some local deviations due to sinking or rising land.
While extreme events are often due to complex sets of causes, some are exacerbated by climate change. Just as coastal flooding can be made worse by rising ocean levels, heat waves are more damaging with higher baseline temperatures.
Climate scientists work hard to estimate future changes as a result of increased carbon dioxide and other expected changes, such as world population. It’s clear that temperatures will increase and precipitation will change. The exact magnitude of change depends on many interacting factors.
A few reasons for hope
On a hopeful note, scientific research is improving our understanding of climate and the complex Earth system, identifying the most vulnerable areas and guiding efforts to reduce the drivers of climate change. Work on renewable energy and alternative energy sources, as well as ways to capture carbon from industries or from the air, are producing more options for a better prepared society.
At the same time, people are learning about how they can reduce their own impact, with the growing understanding that a globally coordinated effort is required to have a significant impact. at previously unthinkable rates. More people are showing a to use energy more efficiently, consume more sustainably and choose renewable energy.
Scientists increasingly recognize that shifting away from fossil fuels has , including for human health and ecosystems.