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The such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.

Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin.

Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates.

Climate change is to bring more heat and . More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions.

Drought hits rural areas hardest

Droughts induce . Hotter temperatures can also . This has negative effects on the .

In Australia, suicide is a – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is . This is because drought can:

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found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking in New South Wales. However, a found no significant association.

What happened in the basin?

looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades.

We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme).

The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.

We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups.

Key findings include:

• one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%
• one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate
• a 1℃ increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate
• in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures
• a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate
• a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates
• more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates
• an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.

Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly.

What can we do better to prevent suicides?

Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed.

Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention.

Many have emphasised the need for a . Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough.

Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to , and drought counselling.

The relationship between seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming.