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This study aims to estimate how many people at global level could be exposed to climate change up to the end of the century, under hypothetical demographic and climate scenarios with a particular focus on Africa. The authors overlay demographic projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate change projections derived from the Representative Concentration Pathways. The study focuses on populations that are likely to be the most exposed to climate change in the future, namely, African populations in a comparative global context.

The study maps potential populations exposed to climate change, in terms of declining agricultural yields, to identify vulnerable areas, allowing for the development of targeted strategies and interventions to mitigate the impacts, ensure resilience, and protect the population living in the most affected areas. Secondly, the study assess differentials in the vulnerability of local populations, showing how African regions would become among one of the most exposed to climate change by the end of the century. The findings support the targeting of policy measures to prevent increased vulnerability among already disadvantaged populations.