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This paper seeks to fill the gap with regard to the quantification of the impact of climate change on future levels of poverty across different income thresholds and scenarios. Climate change is widely understood to be a significant driver of future patterns of human well-being, with numerous studies concluding that climate change will jeopardize the food sources and livelihoods of the poorest and most vulnerable people around the world, reduce economic growth, and increase inequality and poverty. While these relationships are generally accepted in the academic literature, few have quantified the impact of climate change on future levels of poverty across different income thresholds and scenarios.

The authors draw on established long-term forecasts of economic growth, inequality, and population change from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) project, adding them to the IFs integrated assessment model. They use these pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to build a relationship between changing patterns of country-year temperature change and productivity through “damage functions” established in the literature. In addition to representing the economic growth pathways for these alternative scenarios, we reduce uncertainty by exploring alternative patterns of inequality, operationalized through scenario analysis. Finally, we attempt to incorporate the economic effect of tipping points in addition to RCP scenarios based on model estimates from recent literature.