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This study aims to identify the nature and character of risks, both modeled and perceived, and then propose cost-effective adaptation practices that can be implemented by local partners. The authors present a climate vulnerability assessment (CVA), measuring the physical risks posed by a changing climate and farmer’s capacity to adapt to these changes. The CVA covers five farming communities spread across southwestern El Salvador and northeastern Honduras. Though the nature of climate risks may differ across these two distinct climates, we address a suite of potential adaptation solutions to bolster resilience to extreme temperatures, prolonged dry spells, a rise in rainfall variability, and floods stemming from more intense precipitation events and hurricanes.

The CVA identified the following key climate risks impacting farmers in El Salvador and Honduras:

• Drought severity and length is expected to increase because of climate change. Farmers in El Salvador could face six months of drought-like conditions in the near-term and ten months by mid-century. In a high emissions scenario, moderate drought conditions could persist throughout the year by mid-century, signifying an urgent need to move away from reliance on rainfall irrigation and towards water-smart agricultural practices.
• The onset date of the rainy season is becoming more erratic and is another impact of climate change. Analysis of precipitation data over the past four decades reveals a trend of increasing variability in the onset date, with differences of several weeks from year to year. This makes it difficult for farmers to decide when to plant, which can lead to poor germination, stunted crop growth, and reduced yields.
• Future flooding threatens farmland and economies. The CVA applied a forward-looking flood model to illustrate the extent and depth of flood inundation generated by coastal-, riverine-, and rainfall-based flood events in multiple climate scenarios and return periods. In Honduras’ Sula Valley, the study found extensive farmland exposure to even moderate flood events. There are major economic risks as well, considering the possibility of flood damage to roadways and critical infrastructure such as the Port of Cortes, an export hub that is responsible for handling over 90 percent of the country’s import/export goods.
• Projected increases in maximum temperatures and heat wave duration pose significant health risks to on-farm labor. Unmechanized agriculture is strenuous, and with the year’s highest temperatures (February and March) coinciding with the peak labor demand in El Salvador and the postrera harvest period, heat-related health risks and chronic diseases such as kidney disease are likely to increase in the region. High temperatures also make landscapes drier. Coastal El Salvador has extensive groundwater resources, yet overexploitation of slowly recharging aquifers and land-use changes threaten this resource, which is directly linked to the agricultural productivity of small-scale farmers. Coupled with a drier future that may inhibit groundwater recharge, there needs to be greater emphasis on sustainable management, safeguarding, and preservation of groundwater resources.