Developing scenarios that increase resilience to volcanic hazards: A companion guide to advancing scenario practice to build resilience to geologic hazards
This companion guidance discusses specific considerations for co-production of "next generation" scenarios that address volcanic hazards, such as eruptive sequences. It is intended to complement and be used alongside the broader guidance Advancing Scenario Practice to Build Resilience to Geologic Hazards, which considers multiple geologic hazards: earthquakes, landslides, and volcanoes. “Next generation” scenarios take a people-centered approach, focused on scenario development processes and on supporting the implementation of pre-disaster risk mitigation measures.
Considerations discussed include the extended timeframes for volcanic unrest, the greater multiplicity of hazards, potential for warnings sufficiently in advance to evacuate, ongoing hazards posed by volcanic products, and relationships between the volcano and nearby communities. Because volcanic unrest can create significant risks to populations for lengthy periods (in some cases years), it is possible for a scenario effort to occur at the same time, or be integrated with, the response to a volcanic crisis. These significant differences from other types of geologic hazards are the main subjects of this companion document.
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