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This report evaluates whether floods and landslides are more likely when rain falls inside versus outside protected areas (PAs). The authors use monthly municipality data for the period 2000-2015 in Guatemala and monthly district data for the period 1992-2019 in Costa Rica. We define relevant catchment areas using water flows to population centers of administrative units. Then, they calculate the precipitation inside and outside PAs within the relevant catchment areas, and test how the frequency of floods and landslides is affected by whether rain falls inside or outside PAs. The authors use a two-way fixed effect panel data model.

For Guatemala, this reports finds no robust statistically significant effects on these types of disasters. However, in Costa Rica, the authors find that shifts in precipitation towards PAs reduce floods significantly. These results were highly robust. They also find effects on landslides in densely populated districts, as well as reductions in flood-related deaths. To interpret these estimates as a results of the impact of implementing protected areas, the authors would need to assume that if precipitation falls within the boundaries of a PA, the effect of precipitation outside the PA (but in the same watershed) provides a valid counterfactual for the number of disasters that would have occurred if a PA had not been designated in that location.