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This report lays the groundwork for addressing the gap in evidence and analysis of the risk of disaster-related displacement. It presents the first results generated by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre’s global disaster displacement risk model, which builds upon and extends the analysis presented in the 2015 Global Assessment Report. Therefore, it serves as a critical baseline for DRR and climate change adaptation efforts and future humanitarian responses.

Disaster risk assessments typically consider rare, high-intensity hazards that occur only once every 250, 500, 1,000 years or more. That means that most of the disasters that could take place have not yet happened. In order to account for such events, this report adopted a probabilistic approach to measuring risk. It then combined this with empirical data on more common, low-intensity hazards for which the number of people displaced was recorded.

By combining the prospective data presented in this report with retrospective figures, and by analysing the broad socioeconomic and political dynamics that play a role in the underlying drivers of displacement, this report improves the understanding of how it happens and how to reduce it. This in turn will help to address displacement risk across its whole “gestation cycle” rather than only from point zero when displacement actually starts.