Global modeling of seasonal mortality rates from river floods
This work presents a physically based modeling framework to estimate population exposed and mortality rates from river floods in all the world countries, as well as their temporal distribution within the average year, that is the monthly patterns of population exposed and mortality from river floods in 1980–2018 for all world countries.
The use of the GloFAS Reanalysis v3.0 enables a number of advantages over previous works, including the following:
- the use of a hydrological model which simulates all relevant hydrological processes enables a better representation of the timing of floods in comparison to using atmospheric predictors only
- The high‐resolution simulation based on daily rather than monthly data, and at 0.1° grid resolution, enables more precision in the estimation of the timing of the flood waves, including their start, peak and end, as well as of their duration.
- The use of a 39‐year‐long calibrated hydrological reanalysis brings advances in the robustness and the accuracy of the estimated flood seasonality.
Find here some of the main results of the study:
- Global human exposure from river floods is here estimated at 54 million people per year.
- Summer floods in Asia are the main cause of mortality from river floods, accounting for 63% of the 6,120 casualties per year globally.
- In contrast, the 6 months between November and April contribute to only 13% of global mortality, mostly due to floods in South America and Africa.
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