Guidelines on the verification of hydrological forecasts
This publication offers comprehensive guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) on evaluating the quality and reliability of hydrological forecasts. It aims to harmonize verification practices across regions and forecasting systems to enhance the effectiveness of hydrological services. The guidelines provide a structured approach to assessing forecast accuracy, reliability and usefulness, promoting consistency in verification methods. They cover a range of techniques for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, applicable across various temporal and spatial scales.
Case studies and real-world examples demonstrate how these methods can be applied in practice. By offering clear guidance and best practices, the guidelines support NMHSs in building capacity for forecast verification, ultimately contributing to improved forecast quality and service delivery. This work aligns with WMO’s broader goals in water resource management, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation, and supports the Early Warnings for All initiative.
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