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This map illustrates the likelihood that a given region will sustain any drought, flood, or locust infestation within any given year.

Earthquakes are not included in the joint probability calculation because large damaging events occur on a far less frequent time scale than the other three hazard types. The map suggests that most regions of the Horn could expect to receive a hazardous event on an annual to semi-annual basis. Regions typically affected by Shabeelle River flooding suffer most frequently, while the Bari and Sanag regions of Somalia, and the northeasternmost Ethiopia may expect disasters least frequently.