Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems
This study explores the interactions between natural and social systems with the aim of improving the efficiency of flood early warning systems (FEWS). By modeling the dynamics of social collective trust in FEWS as a function of the recent success and failure of the forecasting system, the researchers realistically simulate the cry wolf effect in which many false alarms undermine the credibility of the early warning systems
The findings reveal that more actual false alarms hamper preparedness actions and induce more damages and results justify the optimal warning thresholds which balance false alarms with missed events, and imply that forecasters believe the existence of cry wolf effects, although it does not necessarily mean that cry wolf effects exist.
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