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This white paper examines the relationship between wheat production and changing weather conditions around the globe, with wheat a staple grain accounting for roughly a quarter of calories in the average global diet, and more than 40 percent of calorie intake in many Middle Eastern, Central Asian and European countries.

Major results are as follows:

1. Winter wheat yields may benefit from climate change in many areas, e.g. in parts of the USA, a large swath of Russian growing areas, the northern half of the Chinese wheat belt, and even in parts of the Middle East and South Asia. This is due to a combination of wintertime warming and increased precipitation in many areas, e.g. in the USA, China, northern Europe, and Russia. 
2. In contrast, areas in western and eastern Europe, north Africa and the Levant, Australia, southern China, and central India will most likely see increasing negative pressures on winter wheat yields due to ongoing warming and dry trends. 
3. Spring wheat yields are projected to decline across most growing areas in North America and Europe and far northeastern China, although yield trends are more mixed in Russia, Kazakhstan, and further south in China. 
4. Yield variability will likely increase in most growing areas for spring and winter wheat, particularly in North America and Europe for winter wheat and for spring wheat in North America, Russia, Kazakhstan, and China.
5. Import-dependent countries in the MENA region, e.g. Turkey and northern African countries, may become even more dependent on their primary suppliers (Russia, Ukraine, and other Eastern European countries) due to domestic negative pressures on yields. 
6. Climate-related yield pressures in exporting countries (especially in Europe) will likely impact exporting capacity, but war and geopolitical instability may also continue to affect supply chains, e.g. the ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine.
7. Many winter wheat yield trends in North and South America are insignificant in the current results, pointing to either neutral yield trends, or the need for further research to clarify the impact of ongoing climate pressures. Increased production in the Americas could help to better supply the Western Hemisphere, replacing a third of imports currently from Russia/Ukraine, Eastern and Western Europe, which instead could go to African and Asian importing countries. Direct exports from the Americas to import-dependent countries in the MENA region and Central Asia could potentially also be increased if transportation costs and supply chain disruptions were minimized.