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For this study, the authors undertook a tsunami risk assessment of Cartagena Bay in Chile that disaggregates social vulnerability to the census block level and assesses the inhabitants’ pedestrian evacuation potential through an agent-based model. Their findings indicate that urban coastal areas in Cartagena Bay might face substantial tsunami risk in a worst-case scenario, with 31.0% to 54.1% of its territory—depending on the scale of analysis—classified as high-risk areas.

Of the examined urban blocks, 31.4% have average evacuation times exceeding 17 min (the critical time required by the tsunami to reach its run-up), and the most disadvantaged census block is 1,971.9 m away from its nearest shelter. We also demonstrated that a more spatially accurate vulnerability analysis is more conservative too. For instance, zones with high-risk levels decreased by 42.8% when the study scale moved from the block to the zone level of analysis. Similarly, areas with low risk increased by 80%. In comparison to previous studies, our findings show that tsunami risk in Cartagena Bay is significantly lower if coping capacities such as evacuation potential are included in the analysis.