Incorporating indigenous knowledge systems-based climate services in anticipatory action in Zimbabwe: an ex-ante assessment
This publication investigates the integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS)-based climate services in seasonal climate forecasting. The success of anticipatory action (AA) in climate change related disaster risk reduction depends largely on the ability to accurately predict adverse weather events and to subsequently take appropriate and timely action. The current seasonal climate forecasts obtained through national and global forecasting centers such as the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been found to have several limitations including limited skill in intra-seasonal variability which is vital in most processes, lack of accessibility, difficult interpretability and applicability to local communities.
Results from the study include:
- 82% of the surveyed households used indigenous knowledge systems for seasonal climate forecasting and extreme weather forecasting combined with scientific forecasts;
- Respondents demonstrated preference for triangulated forecasting to increase reliability;
- Both the meteorological approaches to seasonal climate forecasting and the IKS based forecasting had different strengths and weaknesses.
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