Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the Canterbury earthquake sequence, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aims to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast.
Key findings concern the effects on aftershock communication response and information needs; how aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making for large aftershocks; how strategic earthquake sequence updates from trusted agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; how communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid credibility, and the utility of including impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios. The paper derives implications for research and practice of longterm communications during an aftershock sequence.
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