Operational earthquake forecasting: state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization
This document is the executive summary of a study commissioned by the Council of Ministers of Italy, in the aftermath of the L’Aquila earthquake, to (1) report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes, and (2) indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake.
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