Policy relevance of small changes in climate with large impacts on heritage
This publication covers the increasing amount of research of the impact of future climate on heritage. Even small changes in temperature or humidity can be amplified by phase changes or biology to suggest that there could be greatly altered threats to material heritage in the future. The researcher's projections for a changed climate lead to estimates of likely future damage and alterations to heritage and the cultural landscapes it occupies.
The publication finds that:
- Climate parameters need to be tuned to specific materials or heritage assets;
- Climate projections, especially for wind or precipitation are far less reliable than those for temperature;
- There is often concern that the spatial resolution of climate models is insufficient for use in heritage management, but weather generators improve both spatial and temporal resolution;
- It is necessary to move from predictions of potential damage to damage assessments that give an understanding of how errors in climate/damage estimates would affect management decisions.
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