Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation
Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, L22310, doi:10.1029/2007GL031922:
This article addresses volcanic risk reduction and the critical practical action of evacuating of people from threatened areas during volcanic unrest. The article proposes a possible strategy to integrate a probabilistic scheme for eruption forecasting and cost-benefit analysis, with an application to the call for an evacuation of one of the highest risk volcanoes: Vesuvius.
The approach is described as: (i) incorporating a decision-analysis framework, expressed in terms of event probability, accounting for all modes of available hazard knowledge; (ii) a scientific tool, based on quantitative and transparent rules that can be tested; and since the quantitative rules are defined during a period of quiescence (iii) allowing prior scrutiny of any scientific input into the model, so minimizing the external stress on scientists during an actual emergency phase. This approach is expected to be generalized to other types of natural catastrophe.
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