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This study aims to identify priority food security risks and research opportunities. Experts from a range of fields and geographies described key threats to global food security over the next two decades and suggested key research questions and gaps on the topic. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy. The paper presents a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges regarding resilient food systems.

The paper identifies 32 distinct threats that would increase global food insecurity, covering a range of intersecting social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical dimensions. Several cross-cutting themes emerged from the synthesis of the expert elicitation. The analysis found that experts perceived threats on correlated risks across geographies and sequential years to be high. The study's prioritization also indicated that both scientists and practitioners have a need for more granular data and better maps, and improved predictive capacity. The findings support the notion that the pathway to peace globally remains essential for ensuring global food security in the face of extreme events.