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This study assesses the exposure and risk of existing and planned railway assets to river flooding and earthquakes for the Belt and Road. Mitigating the disaster risk of transportation infrastructure networks along the Belt and Road is crucial to realizing the area’s high trade potential in the future. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initially announced in 2013, aims to promote connectivity and cooperation among countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. As of the end of April 2021, the BRI spanned approximately 146 countries. Transportation connectivity is a critical priority for the implementation of the BRI. However, natural hazards and disasters along the Belt and Road (B&R) are widely distributed and occur frequently, accounting for 68.07% of global disaster occurrences.

This study found that about 9.3% of these railway assets are exposed to a one in 100 year flood event, and 22.3% are exposed to a one in 475 year earthquake event. The combined flood and earthquake risk of physical damage to railway assets, expressed by expected annual damage (EAD), is estimated at USD 1438 (between 966 and 2026) million. Floods contribute the majority of the risk (96%). China has the highest EAD for both floods and earthquakes (between USD 240 and 525 million in total). For railway segments with high risks, we found that if the required adaptation cost within 20 years to realize a 10% increase of the railway quality is below 8.4% of the replacement cost, the benefits are positive.