River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change
Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Science, 16, 757-774, 2016, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016
This paper uses the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change in Jakarta, Indonesia. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It estimates baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. The results show that if land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, the paper discusses the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.
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