Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the Lake Chad Basin under current climate change
Central Sahel is affected by a reinforcement of rainfall since the beginning of 1990s. This increase in rainfall is affected by high inter-annual variability and is characterized by extreme rain events causing floods of unprecedented magnitude. However, few studies have been carried out on these extreme events. This study reports on the hydrological changes that currently occur in the Lake Chad basin.
Based on ground observations and satellite data, the study focused on the 2022 flood event, demonstrating that it was the most important event from the last 60 years. The study showed that under this precipitation regime and if warming is not regulated at a global scale, the return period of the 2022 major riverine flood is expected to be between 2 and 5 years. The study also suggested that in the next decade, future flow rates of the main rivers draining the Lake Chad basin could reach the values observed in the 1950s. These results strongly suggest anticipating water management in a context of poor infrastructural development.
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