Understanding hazards: Probabilistic cyclone modelling for disaster risk to the Eastern Coast in Bangladesh
This paper establishes a probabilistic cyclone model for disaster risk to the Eastern Coast in Bangladesh. Cyclones and their associated wind and water hazards result in the largest number of fatalities. Coastal inundations due to cyclonic storm surges are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in low-lying, highly populated coastal areas. Understanding hazards and the probability and intensity of of their occurrence are essential for determining the risk to life and infrastructure, as it allows the relevant agencies to plan for and respond to disasters. This paper developes a synthetic cyclone modelling (Category 4) to understand probable maximum impacts of a tropical cyclone and its cascading and compounding hazards in the Cox's Bazar area in Bangladesh.
These models are used to develop contingency plans and strategies for disaster response. The probabilistic cyclone hazard modelling provides scenarios based hazards information that could benefit humanitarian agencies and future infrastructure risk assessments. The following recommendations may assist managing actual situation and better preparedness for cyclone hazards:
- Vulnerability and risk assessment: This extreme cyclone hazard modelling was used to assessed Rohingya refugee camp's vulnerability and risk assessment to ensure their safety. A contingency plan has been developed by the local government and tested for the Cyclone Amphan in 2020.
- Infrastructure risk assessment: To better understand economic, social, physical and environmental impacts of natural hazards, especially of tropical cyclones, extreme hazard scenario needs to be undertaken.
- Disaster management: The results from the modelling provide a powerful resource to inform cyclone risk management (reduction, readiness, response, and recovery).
- Design standard: This extreme cyclone modelling needs to inform future design of critical infrastructure and standards.
- Disaster risk financing: This extreme cyclone modelling is beneficial for planning and making decisions in disaster risk financing.
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