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Unusually hot temperatures forecast over the next four days (March 4-8) in Burkina Faso and parts of Mali in Africa's Sahel region, a highly climate-vulnerable part of the world, are at least five times more likely due to human-caused climate change. 

How unusual is the forecasted heat?

From March 4-8, dangerously hot temperatures, as much as 6°C (11°F) above average for early March (based on 1991-2020 climate normals), are expected in Burkina Faso and southern and eastern Mali.

• Daytime temperatures are forecast to exceed 40°C (104°F) in this region of Africa.
• Communities across Burkina Faso and southern and eastern Mali may experience a hazardous combination of extreme heat and poor air quality caused by Saharan dust.
• Overnight low temperatures are not expected to fall below 26°C (79°F) in western Burkina Faso and southern and eastern Mali.
  • Hot nights like these make it , which can lead to mental and physical health problems.
• Climate-driven extreme heat can exacerbate food and water insecurity and disease prevalence in these regions, which are already burdened by poverty, malnutrition, and limited access to essential services.

How has climate change influenced this heat?

• Daily average temperatures are expected to reach (CSI) levels of 5 across Burkina Faso and southern and eastern Mali. A CSI level 5 indicates that human-caused climate change made this excessive heat at least 5 times more likely, signifying an exceptional climate change event.
  • These conditions are forecast to impact cities and towns, including Bamako, Djenne, Bobo-Dioulasso, and Ouahigouya.
• Over the entire period, nearly 41 million people across the region will experience at least one day with CSI level 5.
  • The combined population of Mali and Burkina Faso is approximately 49 million people, meaning that more than 80% of the population will experience significant climate change-driven temperature extremes this week.

Impacts

• The deadly heat wave last spring in the Sahel, with highs over 45°C (113°F) recorded in Mali and lows of 32°C (90°F) in Burkina Faso, according to analysis from World Weather Attribution.
• Research finds that climate-driven extreme heat and drought by impacting food security and agricultural yields, notably maize production in Mali.
• While food security has deteriorated across the Sahel, Burkina Faso has made notable gains in human development, including . However, climate change threatens to reverse this progress.
• Despite , Africa disproportionately suffers the burdens of human-caused climate change.

What do experts say?

Dr. Kristina Dahl, VP for Science at Climate Central, said:

"Climate change is fueling the dangerously hot temperatures unfolding this week in Burkina Faso and Mali-two countries that have had a near-negligible contribution to global heat-trapping emissions but are currently bearing the brunt of the consequences. As long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and heat the planet, we can expect heat waves like this-and the inequitable impacts they bring-worsen. "

To request an interview with a Climate Central scientist, please contact Abbie Veitch at [email protected].

How do we know climate change is influencing this heat?

The uses and real-time data to estimate how climate change has increased the likelihood of a particular daily temperature.

We compare the likelihood that these temperatures would occur in a world without carbon emissions released by humans, versus in today's world with decades of carbon emissions building up in the atmosphere. This is an established scientific method to determine how much climate change has or has not affected individual extreme weather events.

Reporting resources

Until carbon emissions end, heat waves everywhere will continue to become hotter and more dangerous. Explore quick facts and local analyses on the links between climate change and extreme heat in:

• Climate Central's
• World Weather Attribution's
• Yale Climate Connections' summary of the connection between .
• Potential Energy's