Improving our pandemic preparedness: Counterfactuals and continuous quality improvement
The report is part of Phase Two of New Zealand’s Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Covid-19 pandemic. It reflects on the nation’s unique elimination strategy and examines its effectiveness by comparing it with other countries, notably the UK, which adopted suppression or mitigation strategies. The study aims to inform future pandemic preparedness through the lens of counterfactual analysis—exploring what might have happened under alternative response strategies. It focuses on key public health measures like vaccine rollout, lockdown policies, digital tracing tools, and mask usage, while also encouraging public engagement and submissions to shape future policies.
The report concludes that New Zealand’s elimination approach was highly effective in minimizing excess mortality and delaying widespread transmission until high vaccine coverage was achieved. It emphasizes the importance of early, decisive action, and highlights that interventions like N95 masks and robust digital tools were underutilized. By comparing outcomes with countries like the UK, the report underscores the life-saving potential of a well-coordinated health strategy. It also identifies systemic shortcomings—particularly in digital infrastructure and timely risk communication—that must be addressed. Strengthening public health infrastructure, workforce, and equity-focused vaccination programs are key recommendations to improve resilience against future pandemics.
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