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On behalf of the German Environment Agency, a research project with the title “Impact CHAIN: the impacts of global climate change on the economy and society in Germany” was commissioned to examine the potential impacts of global climate change on the German economy through foreign trade flows. The results of the project provide an overview of the potential impact chains of global climate change on the German economy. The project used a qualitative analysis to consider the influences of climate change on the German economy and then evaluated their relevance. Some impact chains were subsequently selected to be used in a global macroeconomic model that would investigate the exposure and relevance of climate change-induced disruptions. Lastly, adaptation strategies and measures were developed that would be suitable to be deployed against the most significant global effects.

The results show that Germany is considerably exposed to global climate change. On the one hand this affects the international export markets for German companies, and imports of important intermediate goods for production processes within Germany in particular on the other. The study recommends that economic operators review their strategies towards trade links and, wherever possible, seek to diversify the risks to earnings from intermediate services exposed to the impacts of climate change. It also suggests reducing significant dependencies on individual substances from countries hit hardest by climate change. As a consequence of this, the degree of globalisation in the production of goods in Germany is likely to decrease slightly. In other words more intermediate services would come from the EU and fewer from the rest of the world.